Socio-economic trajectories, urban area expansion and ecosystem conservation affect global potential supply of bioenergy

Biomass energy is projected to be a critical resource for defossilization of the system. While urban area extension and land conservation would constrain potential biomass supply, there little understanding their impacts. This paper presents global regional bioenergy supply estimates by newly implementing expansion in an integrated assessment model AIM (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model). Scenarios were investigated as combinations shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) with default expanded conservation. The potentials 2050 fixed at base year level range 228 (SSP3) 292 (SSP1) exajoules per (EJ yr-1), corresponding differences fraction available crop production. under closely tracked trends reference SSP cases, but decreases ranging from 4.48 6.95 (SSP5) EJ yr-1. total effects small, regions experienced mixed results some cases reversal trends. Under scenarios, reductions caused observed lower except scenarios. These enhance patterns while same time revealing how may fail capture region-specific study concluded that: 1) urbanization lack relevance scale becomes important regions, 2) loss can curbed encouraging compact SSP1 (Sustainable Development), zoning, pursuing joint energy-conservation policies.